By way of the month of March, main gamers of India’s fertiliser trade started exhibiting the primary indicators of an impending disaster.
Early within the month, a Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemical compounds Restricted plant in Gujarat introduced that it was going to chop down on its deliberate manufacturing of neem-coated urea. In mid-March, twovegetation of Nationwide Fertilizers Restricted in Punjab’s Namgal and Bhatinda ceased their operations.
These developments occurred after the Gasoline Authority of India Restricted diminished the availability of liquified pure fuel by 40% to every of those vegetation.
The reduce in provide was a consequence of the battle in West Asia, which escalated by way of March. India’s fertiliser trade relies upon closely on liquified pure fuel imported from the area as uncooked materials to fabricate fertilisers domestically. Half of those imports come from Qatar alone, the place the Ras Laffan liquefied pure fuel plant was broken on March 19.
It isn’t solely the availability of uncooked supplies that has been hit – India additionally immediately imports completed merchandise like urea and diammonium phosphate from Oman, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. With the Strait of Hormuz shut because the outbreak of the conflict, provides of those uncooked supplies and merchandise have dwindled.
Whilst farmers watched the scenario with concern, the Indian authorities sought to assuage their fears. In late March, the federal government introduced that the nation had “sufficient reserves for fertilisers”.
In one other assertion, launched on March 30, the federal government stated that for the upcoming kharif season, the whole out there inventory of all fertilisers, together with urea, diammonium phosphate, potassium chloride and nitrogen-phosphate-potassium, was 18 million tonnes. In the identical assertion the federal government estimated that for the upcoming kharif season, the nation would require 39 million tonnes of fertiliser – greater than double of this out there inventory. It advised that it will bridge this hole by increase shares throughout April and Could, which it described as “lean agricultural intervals”.
Scrollspoke to agricultural specialists to acquire their evaluation of whether or not the nation’s present shares had been prone to be sufficient to fulfill its wants.
These specialists provided combined assessments of the scenario. Ramanjaneyulu GV, govt director on the Centre for Sustainable Agriculture, in Secunderabad, famous that farmers can be sowing for the kharif seasons between April and June, and that there can be a excessive demand from throughout the nation throughout this era. “There’s a brief window of sowing,” he stated. “That’s when all farmers require the fertiliser on the similar time.”
Ramanjaneyulu added, “These shares is likely to be sufficient for the preliminary software when the crops are being sowed. However past that basal requirement, farmers would require a second and third software as effectively, and for that, we could not have sufficient.”
Some specialists provided extra optimistic assessments, no less than for particular fertilisers. Siraj Hussain, former union secretary within the ministry of meals processing industries and agriculture, stated that he didn’t anticipate India to face a scarcity of urea, the fertiliser used within the highest quantities in India.
Siraj, who’s at the moment senior visiting fellow on the Indian Council for Analysis on Worldwide Financial Relations, estimated that the demand for the season can be round 18 million tonnes. He famous that in March, the nation had a inventory of between 5 and 6 million tonnes, and that home manufacturing within the present conflict situation, with diminished liquefied pure fuel imports, stands at between 1.6 and 1.8 million tonnes a month. With this home provide, in addition to the out there inventory and imports from different international locations, assembly the nation’s demand “shouldn’t be troublesome”, Hussain stated.
However on the bottom, many farmers are anxious about the potential for a fertiliser scarcity. In Maharashtra’s Vidharbha, farmer and activist Vijay Jawandhia stated, “The federal government could say there may be sufficient inventory. But when fertiliser producers have stopped or diminished manufacturing, it’s certain to have an effect sooner or later. The demand is identical however the provide isn’t.”
Many farmers are pissed off as a result of they really feel that the federal government shouldn’t be giving them enough details about the scenario. Tejbir Singh, a farmer from Ambala, on the Haryana-Punjab border, informed Scrollthat there’s a sense of panic amongst some farmers as a result of there has to date been no communication from the federal government about its plans to make sufficient portions of fertiliser out there.
“Neither the federal government nor the cooperative societies appear to have ready,” he stated. “Many individuals have purchased the fertilisers in bulk prematurely, and so in lots of locations it isn’t out there proper now.”
Greater demand in kharif
Among the many key causes some farmers and specialists are anxious is that the kharif season requires extra fertiliser than the rabi season.
As an example, in 2023, India consumed a complete of 31.2 million tonnes of urea, nitrogen-phosphate-potassium and diammonium phosphate within the kharif season, and 27.2 million tonnes within the rabi season.
One purpose for this distinction is that extra space is cultivated below kharif crops – in 2024, virtually 38 million hectares of crops had been grown within the kharif season, whereas 33.6 million hectareshad been grown within the rabi season.
Another excuse is that since kharif coincides with monsoons, fertiliser utilized to the soil within the season usually will get washed away with rain. Ramanjaneyulu defined that crops find yourself taking solely about 60% of the fertiliser sprayed on them, which reduces their efficacy.
Ambala’s Singh defined that kharif’s paddy crop additionally wants extra fertiliser as a result of “the land is left fallow for a very long time, between harvesting in April, and sowing in early June”. Thus, he defined, “There’s a have to recharge the soil.” Singh famous that for the entire paddy season, he makes use of three 45-kg luggage of urea per acre.
“The query then is what are the prospects of bridging the hole of provide and demand within the coming two months,” stated Sudha Narayanan, senior analysis fellow on the Worldwide Meals Coverage Analysis Institute. “The federal government is diversifying sources of fertiliser imports from Russia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Algeria and Egypt, together with speaking to China to import completed fertiliser merchandise from. However we have no idea if this can materialise, as a result of China can also be not exporting proper now, since everyone seems to be dealing with the identical constraints domestically.”
To allow the optimum use of accessible shares, Ramanjaneyulu advised that the federal government ought to encourage farmers to go for inexperienced manure within the subsequent two months. This, he argued, would scale back the necessity for the primary spherical of fertiliser use, which is when farmers use probably the most fertiliser.
“Then, the leftover fertiliser can be utilized by farmers for top-up software,” he stated, referring to the second and third software of the fertiliser, which require smaller quantities than the basal or the primary spherical. He added, “How effectively can the out there shares be used, that must be the technique proper now.”
Meals disaster not inevitable
Farmers’ worry of a fertiliser scarcity is especially heightened as a result of they already struggled with the identical downside solely just lately.
In 2025, fertiliser provide to India fell on account of the Crimson Sea Disaster – a scenario that started in 2023 when Houthi rebels started concentrating on ships that had been passing by way of the Crimson Sea. Total, in 2024-’25, India’s import of urea and diammonium phosphate declined by virtually 20% and 18%, respectively, in response to the Fertiliser Affiliation of India. Farmers throughout states complained of an inadequate provide of urea final yr.
Some specialists consider that some components could insulate India from a meals safety disaster even within the occasion of such a provide crunch. It is because many farmers “use extra nitrogen than required, and even the usage of phosphate is considerably skewed”, stated Narayanan.
Narayanan referred to a 2025 examine of 31,000 fields throughout Nepal, Bangladesh, and 4 rice-producing areas of India. It discovered that 55% of rice farmers had been overusing nitrogen fertiliser. It additionally discovered that if farmers used 18 kg much less of the fertiliser per hectare, they may nonetheless receive the identical yield of rice. “This exhibits that even in a provide constraint, there may not be a yield implication because the returns to growing fertiliser use have plateaued,” stated Narayanan.
She added that the worst-case situation was {that a} scarcity would have “farmer-welfare implications”, since some could not receive as a lot fertiliser as they want, or solely receive it at a better worth. “However we wouldn’t have to fret about meals safety, no less than within the brief run,” Narayanan stated.
Hussain echoed this argument, and famous that in a number of states like Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, “the urea consumption is way increased than advisable ranges”. He added that to sort out the issue of a possible scarcity, authorities might think about “tweaking with dispatches to varied states” in order that they didn’t obtain fertiliser in extra of their actual want.
Lowering long-term dependency on fertilisers
Specialists additionally advised that in the long run, India wanted to scale back its dependence on fertilisers. Step one in the direction of this, they famous, can be to recognise the components that created the dependency.
Some analyses have pointed to monocultures as a key such issue that led to extreme fertiliser use. As an example, the journalist Aishwarya Mohanty present in 2025 that among the many high ten states that consumed probably the most fertiliser, six primarily domesticate simply 5 crops on over 90% of land. When farmers develop the identical crop yr after yr, Mohanty discovered, it absorbs the identical vitamins repeatedly, forcing them to rely on fertilisers to make up for the lack of these vitamins. However when farmers plant various crops, “the completely different vegetation replenish and stability soil vitamins”, Mohanty wrote.
“The issue shouldn’t be the availability alone, however the excessive dependency on these fertilisers,” Ramanjaneyulu stated. “How will we enhance soil well being? That needs to be the central technique.”
He added that such steps would have benefits past bettering the well being of pure sources – for example, they may assist enhance the well being of the general public, which is harmed by publicity to chemical compounds in fertilisers, both by way of inhalation if they’re sprayed, or by way of ingestion in the event that they enter groundwater. These steps additionally cut back the federal government’s burden of importing fertilisers and offering them at a subsidy to farmers, he added.
Singh, nevertheless, identified that farmers could not discover it straightforward to shift to alternate options to fertilisers. “Farmers are able to domesticate with out urea,” he stated. “However then the market has to make the alternate options out there.” He added that the federal government ought to try to offer farmers with seed varieties that had good yields, at an affordable price, and in addition present them with incentives to modify to alternate options to pesticides.
Narayanan famous that the federal government “has positively learnt from the earlier disaster”. She famous that it was trying “at diversification of imports, securing long-term stability with different international locations, and pushing for brand spanking new expertise on the manufacturing finish”. However, she added, when it got here to creating enhancements comparable to utilizing nitrogen fertiliser extra effectively, and thus lowering demand, “we’ve not made important effort”.
