In 2018, a colleague and I, along with a workforce of Greenlandic analysis assistants, carried out some of the complete surveys so far on public opinion in Greenland. We travelled to 13 randomly chosen cities and settlements throughout the island nation, conducting in-person interviews with a consultant pattern of grownup residents.
The survey explored a variety of subjects. We requested for views on local weather change, financial issues – and the prospect of independence from Denmark. Till not too long ago, this was the newest ballot on what the individuals of Greenland thought of this subject.
Greenland, a former Danish colony, is at present an autonomous territory inside the Kingdom of Denmark. This political association grants Greenland in depth self-rule, together with management over most home affairs, in addition to its personal prime minister and parliament. Nonetheless, Denmark retains authority over overseas coverage, defence and financial coverage.
Whereas our survey outcomes have been lined in Greenlandic and Danish media upon their launch, they acquired scant worldwide consideration. This modified abruptly on January 15, when newly re-elected US president Donald Trump reposted an previous information article about our outcomes. The headline acknowledged that two-thirds of Greenlandic residents help independence.
Trump didn’t add a remark within the submit however the insinuation was clear given his latest statements about annexing Greenland from Denmark: Greenlandic residents need independence from Denmark, and subsequently, they may be open to different political or financial preparations with the US.
“I feel we’re going to have it,” Trump not too long ago stated after a cellphone name with the Danish prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, who instructed him the land was “not on the market”. Trump has up to now spoken of one way or the other “buying” Greenland however has since moved on in the direction of talking in additional assertive phrases about taking management of the territory.
Again in 2018, once we carried out the survey, Trump had not but revealed any plans to annex the island nation. It was a state of affairs we might hardly even have imagined and subsequently didn’t ask our contributors about. As such, no matter how Trump framed them, the survey outcomes by no means indicated that the inhabitants harboured a need to hitch the US.
In truth, a latest survey carried out by Sermitsiaq (a Greenlandic newspaper) and Berlingske (a Danish newspaper) straight addressed this query and located that solely 6% of respondents needed Greenland to go away Denmark and as an alternative grow to be a part of the US.
Within the examine I printed based mostly on the 2018 information assortment, I reported {that a} majority of the Greenlandic inhabitants aspired to independence. Two-thirds of the contributors thought that “Greenland ought to grow to be an unbiased nation sooner or later sooner or later”.
Opinions have been extra divergent concerning the timing of independence. When requested how they’d vote in an independence referendum if it have been held immediately, respondents who acknowledged a choice have been evenly break up between “sure” and “no” to independence.
The Act on Greenland Self-Authorities, handed in 2009, grants the Greenlandic authorities the authorized authority to unilaterally name a referendum on separating from the political union with Denmark. In line with the regulation, “the choice concerning Greenland’s independence shall be taken by the individuals of Greenland”.
In the course of the 15 years since its passage, the choice to name a referendum has not been exercised. That is seemingly as a result of potential financial penalties of leaving the union with Denmark.
Annually, Denmark sends a block grant that covers roughly half of Greenland’s price range. This helps a welfare system that’s extra in depth than what is out there to most People. As well as, Denmark administers many expensive public providers, together with nationwide defence.
This backdrop presents a dilemma for a lot of Greenlanders who aspire to independence, as they weigh welfare issues in opposition to political sovereignty. This was additionally evident from my examine, which revealed that financial issues affect independence preferences.
For a lot of Greenlanders, the island nation’s wealthy pure assets current a possible bridge between financial self-sufficiency and full sovereignty. Overseas investments and the related tax revenues from useful resource extraction are seen as key to decreasing financial dependence on Denmark. Presumably, these pure assets, which embrace uncommon earths and different strategic minerals, additionally assist clarify Trump’s curiosity in Greenland.
As Greenland’s future is prone to stay on the centre of a geopolitical energy wrestle for a while, it’s essential to do not forget that solely Greenlanders have the correct to find out their very own path. What scarce info is out there on their views means that whereas many aspire to independence, it isn’t pushed by a need to hitch the US.
Gustav Agneman is Affiliate Professor, Division of Economics, Norwegian College of Science and Know-how.
This text was first printed on The Dialog.
